Short answer: Turkey or China for rebar to Germany?
Türkiye was the modeled conditional cost leader at €779 per tonne in this 20-tonne B500B case, excluding recoverable import VAT. China was the €851 per tonne practical fallback. The decision was still to hold the purchase order until the importer and broker confirmed quota treatment and the buyer joined the quoted mill to current plant and DIN 488 evidence. These are dated planning outputs, not executable supplier quotations.
Decision summary
Türkiye was the conditional cost leader, but indicative claims awaiting allocation equaled 178% of the reviewed Q3 opening quota during the blocking period. China was the practical fallback: its reviewed queue signal was much lower, while freight and default-value CBAM increased the 20-tonne result.
The recommendation was not to place a purchase order. The next step was a parallel RFQ with DIBt-listed plants in Türkiye and China, followed by broker confirmation of quota treatment and exact plant evidence for DIN 488.
Why the ranking changed
| Origin | Base result | Transport | Main blocker | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | €779/t | 5–8 day road planning window | Quota queue and allocation | Conditional lead |
| China | €851/t | 40–47 day port-to-port planning window | Freight, CBAM, long-length loading | Fallback / quote next |
| India | Not costed | Quote required | No comparable B500B/DIN 488 evidence basis found | Screened out |
Evidence discipline
Data cut: 9 July 2026. Supplier prices were public market-screening benchmarks, not executable quotations. Freight and handling were planning inputs. The report modeled German import VAT separately from economic cost and treated unresolved quota allocation as a decision blocker.
The 20-tonne shipment is below the 50-tonne annual CBAM threshold on its own, but the base case assumes that the importer exceeds the threshold across all covered 2026 imports. Use the dated CBAM construction-import evidence checklist to control that annual threshold, installation data, default-versus-actual emissions decision, verification, certificate-price quarter, and 2027 declaration/surrender path.
The CSV exposes the shipment basis, market-screening price and freight inputs, CBAM assumptions, quota observations, calculated base and out-of-quota scenarios, source IDs, and caveats for each origin. Cite it with the data-cut date; do not present the planning values as supplier quotations or current quota availability.
Dataset reuse: license, attribution, and source terms.
Primary sources
Official sources used to frame the guidance. Check the current product and transaction before acting.
Are your supplier quotes ready to compare?
Answer eleven structured questions and get a private HOLD, VERIFY, or READY TO COMPARE result without entering your identity.